The telecommunications industry is looking ahead to the 2030s as a pivotal period for the evolution of mobile networks. According to the Dell’Oro Group, a trusted market research firm specializing in telecom industries, capital expenditures (Capex) for 6G technology are forecasted to begin ramping up significantly around 2030. This development signals a major shift in investments for Radio Access Networks (RAN), even though the overall RAN market is expected to remain flat over the next decade.
Flat RAN Market Outlook Through the 2020s
Despite continuous advancements in mobile technology, the global RAN market faces a flat or slightly declining revenue outlook until 2029. This stagnation is attributed to slower growth in mobile data traffic and cautious spending among operators, who remain skeptical about making large investments following 5G’s modest revenue impact so far. Telecom operators are focusing on spectrum optimization and capital efficiency, avoiding heavy expenditures while maintaining existing infrastructure.
The 2030 Inflection Point for 6G Capex
The gradual increase in 6G-focused investment starting around 2030 is expected to change the landscape. Dell’Oro Group projects that cumulative 6G RAN Capex from 2029 to 2034 could represent as much as 55 to 60 percent of the total RAN capital expenditures during that period. This surge is driven by the need to address mobile network utilization challenges anticipated at the decade’s close and to leverage advanced technologies, including Massive MIMO systems operating in Sub-7 GHz and centimeter wave spectrum bands.
Technological Drivers and Network Evolution
6G investments will focus on upgrading and expanding macro cell infrastructures, emphasizing Massive MIMO to dramatically enhance spectral efficiency and capacity. Furthermore, emerging integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) at the RAN edge is expected to improve network adaptability and performance. The technology evolution will not only support enhanced mobile broadband but will also pave the way for expanded use cases such as private wireless networks and fixed wireless access, which influence the scale of 6G spending.
Market Implications and Strategic Outlook
While the early 2020s might remain marked by conservative investments, the telecom industry’s financial focus will gradually pivot towards 6G by 2030. Dell’Oro Group estimates that 6G Capex could approach $30 billion by 2033, signaling a slow but steady growth trajectory. This trend suggests that operators and vendors should prepare for a ‘slow burn’ of increasing investments, integrating new technologies and addressing capacity demands systematically.
Conclusion
The decade from 2024 to 2034 is set to witness a cautious telecom investment environment with flat RAN market revenues initially. However, starting around 2030, the ramping up of 6G Capex is poised to become a significant market driver, redefining network capabilities and investment priorities. As 6G technologies mature, including AI-enhanced Massive MIMO and expanded spectrum use, the telecom industry is likely to enter a new phase of growth, innovation, and capacity enhancement.
In essence, the future of mobile networking hinges on this anticipated 6G investment surge, with strategic preparation necessary today to navigate the evolving industry landscape tomorrow.
